東京アラート、さらに感染拡大した場合、何が起きるのか?(What happens if Tokyo Alert spreads further?)

2020/06/04 ブログ















Tokyo Alert was just a warning. However, 28 new cases of new coronavirus infection were reported today (June 4th). Compared to the 34 people the day before, it seems to have decreased a little, but it still applies to the conditions of Tokyo Alert. If the number of new coronavirus infections continues to increase, what will be the next step?


After Tokyo Alert, the emergency declaration will be re-issued. What is that standard?


If the number of new cases of new coronavirus is increasing, what are the criteria for taking the next step? Tokyo has already set the following standards.


(1) More than 50 new infections per day
(2) 50% or more of people with unknown infection routes
(3) The number of infected people doubles every week


These standards are considered as "reference" as at the time of Tokyo Alert. If this limit is exceeded, it seems that the expert's views will be heard before making a request for refraining from sales. In other words, it will return to the state it was in before the emergency declaration was released. In fact, last week there were 41 new cases, and last week 83 new cases were reported. The condition (3) has already been met. As of Thursday this week has reached 92 people. If you reach 74 people in the remaining two days this week, you have met the condition (3) for two consecutive weeks. Probably, if there are 50 new infected people a day, it is considered that they will move to the next stage.
I don't know if an actual declaration of emergency will be made. The content is the same as in the situation of the emergency declaration. If the emergency declaration is made again, there is nothing wrong. But without an emergency declaration, people will eventually go out and many of the downtown stores will be open. Most people get tired of self-restraint, and the store will not be able to run without a business. As a result, it will lead to the spread of new coronavirus infection in Tokyo, which will be the second wave of the epidemic. In fact, at the Governor of Koike this time, many of the newly infected people were young people, and the infection spread as a result of eating and drinking with evening entertainment. Will the new coronavirus infection in Tokyo spread in the future? And what kind of judgment will Governor Koike make?


After all, the development of vaccines and therapeutic agents is urgent.


 In a presentation by the Japanese Society of Medical Science, he stated that "a novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is a cytokine storm syndrome." SARS-CoV-2, the same coronavirus, induces activation of various transcription factors via the innate immune system. As a result, it has been shown to enhance the production of inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6. A rheumatism therapeutic drug (anti-IL-6 receptor antibody tocilizumab) that suppresses inflammatory cytokine production is drawing attention as a new coronavirus therapeutic drug. Tocilizumab is a drug that controls the severity of disease, not a drug that suppresses the spread of new coronavirus infection. Vaccine development is urgently needed to control the spread of new coronavirus infection.

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