韓国が試掘していた日本海天然ガス・油田は、経済性がありませんでした。
韓国は２０２４年６月、韓国南東部沖の日本海に石油や天然ガスが埋蔵されているとして、海底掘削を行うと発表しました。当時、ユン大統領は膨大な石油や天然ガスが埋蔵されている可能性が「非常に高い」としており、最大１４０億バレルに達すると見込んでいました。また、推定埋蔵量の４分の３が天然ガス、４分の１が石油とされ、ユン大統領は「天然ガスは韓国全体が最大２９年間、石油は４年以上使える量だ」との分析を示しました。その後、同年８月に同海域の試掘が開始されました。日本でも大きく報じられており、ご存知の方も多いかと思います。また、本当に天然ガスが日本海にそれほど多く埋蔵しているのであれば、日本にとっても朗報となります。
ボーリング調査の結果、天然ガスの経済性はありません。
韓国が２０２４年８月に開始した韓国南東部の浦項（ポハン）沖試掘調査（海底ボーリング調査）の結果が、先日発表されました。当該海域に埋蔵されている天然ガスは、経済性があると判断する水準には大きく及びませんでした。実際に韓国の関係者は「ボーリング作業でガスの兆候が一部あったことを確認したが、規模が意味のある水準ではない」と述べていました。ただし、石油や天然ガスが埋蔵されるために必要な地質構造は良好であることが確認されたようです。韓国政府は外資の誘致などを通じてさらなる調査を行いたいと考えているようです。当初、５カ所試掘を行い、天然ガス・石油が出る確率は２０％と発表しております。まだ１カ所目の試掘なので、後４本の試掘を行う計画だと思います。しかし、本当に試掘は行われるのでしょうか？
韓国の政情不安と試掘プロジェクトの不透明性
現在、ユン大統領を取り巻く環境は、海底油田探索という事業を推進できる状況にはありません。今回の結果を受けて、今後海底ボーリング調査を続けるのか否か、判断が必要だと思います。最初にボーリング調査を行う海域は、おそらく最も天然ガス・石油が出る期待が高い海域だったのでしょう。その上で今回の結果は、あまりに期待外れでした。このまま、プロジェクトを継続するか否か、判断が迫られるところです。ちなみに、最初に韓国政府が調査を依頼したオーストラリアの海底調査会社は、経済性なしという調査結果を報告していました。そこで、韓国政府は別の調査会社に調査を依頼しました。今回、試錐技術評価を担当した米国の深海技術評価専門会社アクトジオでした。ただ、その会社の実体も明確でなく、韓国国内でもかなり懐疑的になっています。
政権交代となった時、海底油田探索プロジェクトはおそらく中断されるでしょう。前政権を引き継いだところで、前政権の功績となってしまいます。今回、当該海域の油田探索プロジェクトの結果は、プロジェクトの中断に良い理由となってしまいました。果たして、韓国はこのまま「国家のプロジェクト」として、海底油田開発を続けていくのでしょうか？注目したいと思います。
#韓国 #海底油田 #試掘調査
The natural gas and oil fields in the Sea of Japan that South Korea was exploring were not economically viable.
In June 2024, South Korea announced that it would conduct offshore drilling, claiming that oil and natural gas deposits were found in the Sea of Japan off the southeastern coast of South Korea. At the time, President Yoon said that there was a "high possibility" that there were huge reserves of oil and natural gas, estimating that they could reach up to 14 billion barrels. In addition, three-quarters of the estimated reserves were natural gas and one-quarter were oil, and President Yoon analyzed that "the amount of natural gas would be enough for the whole of South Korea to use for up to 29 years, and the amount of oil would be more than four years." After that, exploration in the same area began in August of the same year. This was widely reported in Japan, and many people are probably aware of it. Also, if there really is that much natural gas in the Sea of Japan, it would be good news for Japan as well.
The results of the drilling survey showed that natural gas is not economically viable.
The results of the exploratory survey (seabed drilling survey) off the coast of Pohang in southeastern South Korea, which South Korea began in August 2024, were recently announced. The natural gas reserves in the area were far from the level that would be deemed economically viable. In fact, a South Korean official said, "We confirmed that there were some signs of gas during the drilling work, but the scale was not significant." However, it seems that the geological structure necessary for oil and natural gas to be buried is good. The South Korean government seems to want to conduct further investigations through attracting foreign capital, etc. Initially, five exploratory drillings were conducted, and it was announced that there was a 20% chance of finding natural gas and oil. Since this is still the first exploratory drilling, I think the plan is to conduct four more exploratory drillings. However, will the exploratory drilling really be carried out?
Political instability in South Korea and the uncertainty of the exploratory project
Currently, the environment surrounding President Yoon is not in a position to promote the project of exploring for offshore oil fields. In light of the results of this investigation, I think it is necessary to decide whether to continue the seabed drilling survey in the future. The area where the drilling survey was first conducted was probably the area where natural gas and oil were most likely to be found. The results this time were very disappointing. A decision must be made as to whether to continue the project or not. Incidentally, the Australian seabed survey company that the Korean government first commissioned to conduct the survey reported that the survey results indicated that the project was not economically viable. The Korean government then commissioned another survey company to conduct the survey. This time, it was Actgeo, a US company specializing in deep-sea technology evaluation, which was in charge of the drilling technology evaluation. However, the company's true identity is unclear, and there is considerable skepticism within Korea.
When the government changes, the offshore oil field exploration project will probably be suspended. If the government takes over from the previous government, it will be the achievement of the previous government. This time, the results of the oil field exploration project in the area in question have become a good reason to suspend the project. Will Korea continue to develop the offshore oil field as a "national project"? I would like to keep an eye on it.
#Korea #OffshoreOilField #ExploratorySurvey
